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SDSM&T Professor Counts on Math to Predict Superbowl Champion

  (January 30, 2014)
SDSM&T Professor Counts on Math to Predict Superbowl Champion

Rapid City, SD (PRWEB) January 30, 2014

As football fanatics gear up for Sundays big game, one question hangs in the air: Who will be the next Superbowl champion? Some look to players injuries, others, coaches plays, while still more bet on the sheer will of diehard fans for a decisive victory. Roger Johnson, Ph.D., counts on math. His prediction: the Seattle Seahawks by a mere .2-point edge.

His models have a history of success. This year my scheme correctly predicted game outcomes 63 percent during the regular season and 80 percent correct during the playoffs, explains Johnson, a professor in the Department of Mathematics & Computer Science at the South Dakota School of Mines & Technology.

During the NFL season, Johnson produces weekly point-spread ratings. Essentially, each team has a rating, and when two teams play each other, the predicted score difference is the difference in the ratings. The only deviation: a 3-point correction for home-field advantage.

To get a feel for the method, if two games have been played in a season say Minnesota beats Green Bay by 10 points and Green Bay beats Chicago by five points then the method predicts Minnesota would beat Chicago by 15 points.

But its not all cool statistical analysis; his hearts in the game, too. Johnson began his forecasts in 1998, the year his beloved Vikings lost the championship game, missing their chance at Superbowl stardom. Even then, his predictions foresaw the Broncos rise to the top.

This Sunday, hell face Denver again and wait to see if the Seahawks keep their .2-point edge, leading its team and Johnson to victory.

About SDSM&T
Founded in 1885, the South Dakota School of Mines & Technology is a science and engineering research university located in Rapid City, S.D., offering bachelors, masters and doctoral degrees. The university enrolls 2,640 students from 45 states and 37 countries, with a student-to-faculty ratio of 14:1. The average starting salary for graduates is $62,400 with a 98 percent placement rate. Find us online at, on Facebook at and on Twitter at

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